More on Those Addison County 2012 Senate Results

Nationally recognized expert on Vermont and national politics, Eric Davis, professor emeritus of political science at Middlebury College weighed in on the 2012 Addison County state senate race between incumbent Sen. Claire (D), Democratic former Vermont House member (as well as having served in a number of other community service posts) Chris Bray and never-ever likely to be  Senator Robert "Needed Killin' " Wagner, a recurring Vermont secession movement candidate who, from  what I can find, has never won any office here or in Brooklyn, NY where he hails from.

This from today's Addison Independent on the race:

"While the 5,073 tallies registered by Wagner were considerably more than the 1,127 he garnered in 2010, political observers did not attribute that to Wagner gaining more traction with his campaign in which he championed, among other things, eliminating the personal income tax and instead taxing natural resource extraction as well as unearned income from land speculation. Eric L. Davis, a political analyst and professor emeritus of political science at Middlebury College, said Wagner’s beefed-up numbers likely came from tallies tossed to him by Republican voters who did not have a GOP candidate to vote on in this year’s race for state senate. For the first time in decades, Republicans did not field a single candidate for Addison County’s two state Senate seats. GOP officials have cited as reasons the rigors of campaigning and the senatorial district losing Brandon (a Republican stronghold) and gaining Huntington (which leans Democratic) through reapportionment. 

Davis noted the election returns show that roughly 17,500 Addison County residents voted for president on Tuesday. Those same people had two votes to cast in the state Senate race, which could have produced a total of around 35,000 votes. But only around 28,000 votes were cast in the state Senate race, meaning that approximately 7,000 voters did not make two selections in that contest. 

“The Wagner vote represents Republicans who wanted another name on the ballot and there were no Republicans to vote on, so they voted for Wagner,” Davis said.But Wagner, reached on Wednesday, discounted Davis’s analysis. 

“We don’t know until we ask people why” they voted the way they did, he said.Wagner said he believes most Vermonters classify themselves as independent, and he perceived his vote total as evidence of growing support. And he believes any votes tossed his way on Tuesday were a statement against majority party rule in general, rather than just a jab at Democrats. He said he is likely to run for state Senate again in the future."

Davis' analysis jibes with what I first posted about months ago and mentioned again two nights ago as the election came to a close: Wagner would pick up votes from some Republicans who had nowhere else to go.  At his website Wagner continues to inflate the importance of his showing but it's all starting to sound too contorted - sad, really.

Meanwhile, in another matter related to Wagner's conflicting positions, there's been no word yet about whether Wagner will be
returning the $288.30 Federal subsidy he received while flying out of the airport in Rutland, VT, which is exactly the kind of Federal subsidy that he "is strongly opposed to" and has argued harms Vermonters that I revealed he'd hypocritically availed himself of (as in sticking his snout in the federal money trough) here. Wagner must publicly give back that subsidy money or he'll be exposed for the hypocritical fraud that many of us Vermonters now know him to be. baas the Dixie singin' Magnolia Vermonter Second Vermont Republic "Vermont Commons" Rob Williams "target="_blank * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * For the archive of the Free Vermont Framework listserv, click here.

"Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics" Concerning the Addison County Election Results for 2012

"Figures often beguile me, particularly when I have the arranging of them myself; in which case the remark attributed to  (Benjamin) Disraeli would often apply with justice and force: 'There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.'"Mark Twain - 1906

The quote above is one that comes to mind whenever I hear pols and their would be brethren, spin election results.  After the brief post preceding this one, which was put up primarily to be the first (and likely the last) to chronicle the never-ever-gonna-be Senator Robert "Needed Killin' " Wagner's latest loss in his bid to unseat Addison County's real Sen. Claire Ayer (D), I thought a little light needed to be shed on his assertions about the Addison County election results in 2012.

The Vermont secession movement candidate, Robert Wagner, is now pointing to his having finished dead last as, well, I should let him explain it to you from his testy concession post that he grandiosely titled Great Accomplishments in 2012,

"Thanks to you I have shot up to 18%, with no money spent. Vote count has tripled to 4273 (from 1278) two years ago. My home town, Ripton cast 30% of its votes for me."

Here's the weakness in Wagner's self-serving analysis: Republicans didn't

 field any candidates for the two Addison County senate seats, one of which was an open seat.  As I pointed out months ago, Wagner stood to benefit from the absence of any Republican candidate for the county senate seats, and the numbers bear that fact out.

It's no secret that there are many, Republicans and Democrats, that can't vote ever for someone in the other party.  That seems to have been borne out in by the return he cited for his present hometown, Ripton, VT - official results have yet to be posted at the Vermont Secretary of State's website so let's just assume for the moment there's some truth to what he says in this instance and that his thumb isn't on the scale.  What Wagner doesn't tell you is that in 2010 the percentage of people in Ripton, VT who didn't vote for a Democrat was virtually identical to this year.

Wagner has an ongoing relationship with the Republican fringe over at the Ron Paultard inspired Liberty Candidates, Teabagger website here and his results around Addison County would seem to confirm his Republican affiliated ties.

Wagner announced early on that he was targeting the Addison County senate seat of incumbent Democrat Claire Ayer, which reveals a fundamental misunderstanding of how the county legislative electoral process works on his part.  In short, Sen. Ayer soundly kicked his ass in every town in Addison County, ultimately crushing her putative opponent (at least in his mind) by 30% points.  Similar to the Ripton results, the Wagner vote count in the other towns generally mirrored past Republican results.  So as Wagner himself has asked in his own post on his stunning defeat despite the field of candidates have been clear of opposition from the Republican quarter,

"Cui bono? Who benefits? Draw your own conclusions."

we can adduce, "Che ha beneficiato della mancanza di un candidato Repubblicano a Addison County" or who benefits from the absence of Republican candidates in Addison County (that is, besides the Democrats).  It's safe to conclude that was the non-Dem in the senate race, Robert Wagner.

The problem for Wagner is that Republicans aren't likely to continue to concede the field to the Democrats and nor are they going to feel inclined to endorse a purported independent candidate who has vowed to take Vermont out of the Union.

Speaking of which, one of Wagner's announced plans from way back in 2010 was to field a slate of secessionist candidates for every Senate seat in Vermont's General Assembly that he said not a word about in his Great Accomplishments in 2012 post, a group he called "The Thirty." Early on he even went so far as to lie repeatedly about how many he'd already "recruited" in June of 2011, saying that he had 6 seceshers ready to go (here and here).  As it turned out, only two others - perennial flake Peter Moss in Franklin County and Terry Jeroloman in Chittenden County - longtime secesher supporters, as in Kool-Aid drinkers, made Wagner's anti-American cut.  Like Wagner each came in dead last in their respective races - Moss with 4% and Jeroloman with 1%.  Truly sad, the whole, small lot of them.  "The only way is up," huh, guys?

As the election season disastrously closed for this year's tiny crew of Vermont secesher office seekers, their baas, the Dixie singin' founder of the moribund Second Vermont Republic whose failed utterly in his plan to take Vermont out of the Union, Thomas H. Naylor, has announced that he's expanding his horizon beyond that unachieved object to now, get this,

"SVR has broadened its mission to include a commitment to... the peaceful breakup of meganations such as the United States, China, and Russia"

Sure, Tom. Get right on that. No doubt the U.S., China, Russia and whoever else you've got in your cross hairs are preparing to capitulate given your stunning lack of success here in Vermont.  More likely not.  Certainly President Obama wasn't specifically referring to Vermont's "small community of secessionists" (as one founder of SVR, Ian Baldwin, refers to them) when he gave his victory speech in the wee hours of November 7 but Naylor, Baldwin, Wagner and the remainder of the dwindling Vermont secesher movement should pay heed to his closing words:

"We are greater than the sum of our individual ambitions and we remain more than a collection of red states and blue states. We are, and forever will be, the United (emphasis, the President's) States of America."

Meanwhile, in another matter related to Wagner's conflicting positions, there's been no word yet about whether Wagner will be returning the $288.30 Federal subsidy he received while flying out of the airport in Rutland, VT, which is exactly the kind of Federal subsidy that he "is strongly opposed to" and has argued harms Vermonters that I revealed he'd hypocritically availed himself of (as in sticking his snout in the federal money trough) here. Wagner must publicly give back that subsidy money or he'll be exposed for the hypocritical fraud that many of us Vermonters now know him to be.

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

For the archive of the Free Vermont Framework listserv, click here.

BREAKING! Addison County Vermont Senate Election Result

Well, maybe not so much.  Wagner's numbers are up slightly at this point from two years ago but given that no Republican ran against the Dems Ayer and Bray, it's surprising that Senator Robert "Needed Killin' " Wagner did so poorly.  Why Wagner couldn't do better since there are so many Republicans that can't bring themselves to vote for a Democratic candidate might have to do with his dissing Republicans on other websites and Facebook; maybe some of the Republicans who did throw him a vote just hadn't heard that Wagner is a bigtime proponent of neo-Georgist/Marxist economics for Vermont.

No matter.  Wagner continues to be a major Vermont secession movement loser - he didn't replace 1 of the 30 Vermont senators that he'd vowed to have voted out, nor did any of his endorsed indy newbies make an electoral dent as he claimed that they would.

Wagner now supplants weirdo Dennis Steele (2010 secesher gubernatorial candidate) as defacto head of the list of majorly defeated, delusional seceshers that remain on the Vermont political scene.  If he follows his past practice, he'll announce his next campaign sometime tomorrow - not a very Vermont thing.  But, hey, this native Brooklynite who's only lived here a few years and has taken to calling others who've lived here decades longer as being "flatlanders" probably hasn't figured that out yet.

Meanwhile, in another matter related to Wagner's conflicting positions, there's been no word yet about whether Wagner will be returning the $288.30 Federal subsidy he received while flying out of the airport in Rutland, VT, which is exactly the kind of Federal subsidy that he "is strongly opposed to" and has argued harms Vermonters that I revealed he'd hypocritically availed himself of (as in sticking his snout in the federal money trough) here. Wagner must publicly give back that subsidy money or he'll be exposed for the hypocritical fraud that many of us Vermonters know him to be.

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

For the archive of the Free Vermont Framework listserv, click here.